How fast will primary telehealth grow?
After a decade of false starts, primary telehealthcare is set to rocket. Why?
After all the disappointments of the last decade it is easy to be sceptical that health care services will ever adopt new ways of working. This is particularly so in developed countries where the medical profession often fights rationalisation at every step.
So why are we so optimistic about telehealth, using the web, text and video conference to deliver primary care?
Firstly because something has to give. In most European countries a huge percentage of primary care doctors are due to retire in the next decade. In Switzerland the figure is 60%. In the UK the first generation of immigrant doctors are about to retire. Teleradiology took for ever to get off the ground but it is soaring now in Northern Europe (look at Medica’s IPO) because radiologist scarcity means there is literally no choice. Primary care is about to hit the same block.
Secondly because a lot of patients want it. The convenience of talking through a mild ailment from home is not be sneezed at. That particularly applies in mega cities in Emerging Markets.
Thirdly because there is a growing propensity to purchase in many countries, even those with public healthcare systems. In Switzerland, 49% of the population have an excess of SF300 (€265). Low cost consultations and AI diagnostics look appealing. In the UK it now takes an average of 13 days to see a GP. So there is a substantial out of pocket market at the right price.
Fourthly, telehealth is already much bigger than most people realise. It is for instance often used by what are effectively distributors to give people access to embarrassing prescription drugs. And we all know that patients are doing telehealth for themselves with Dr Google.
The fifth reason is simple. More and more operators are offering it. That includes big Nordic hospital groups like Aleris and Capio, and Care UK which runs NHS primary care practices. We are told that many forward-looking individual primary care practices are getting in on the act. And all that is before we count new players such as bablylon.
Finally we need only look at the progress of Teladoc, the big US telehealth player. It took over a decade for it to reach its first 1m online consultations in October 2015, and hit its second million in 11 months to January 2017. It should hit its third million by September 2017, in eight months.