Life expectancy and the 1970s kitchen
It has become a commonplace for economists to tell us that the pace of technological growth has slowed dramatically. Typically, they point out that the kitchen of the 1970s is almost identical to the kitchen of 2013, but vastly different from the kitchen of 1910. We just aren’t producing new stuff that people want as much (aside from the internet). I was struck by how untrue this is for healthcare.
For starters, the pace of technology change has kept up. I know several people who would be very dead if they had been struck down in the 1970s and yet are still hopping about happily in their 2013 kitchens. A look at the rise in life expectancy shows this. In 1970 in the UK it was 68.7 for a man and 75 for a woman. In 2010 it was 77.8 and 81.9.
The amazing truth is that there is no sign yet that the rate of growth in life expectancy in the west is tailing off. Professor Bernd Marin at the European Centre for Social Health Policy and Research in Vienna says there has been no reduction in the rise, whatsoever. “Every five years policymakers and academics forecast that life expectancy growth will tail off in the following decade. They have been doing this since the 1970s and it still hasn’t.”
It is almost invariably claimed by politicians that we can not possibly increase the amount we spend on healthcare as a society. Yet there remains a huge appetite for the resource. After all, you can only have one dishwasher or espresso machine. Yet you only have one life.
In the minutiae of speculation over tariffs for different medical procedures and budget ceilings, it is easy to forget this overarching truth. A lot of comparatively wealthy people want to spend a lot more money on good healthcare.
We would welcome your thoughts on this story. Email your views to Max Hotopf or call 0207 183 3779.
