Staff exodus could be a lasting legacy of Ukrainian conflict
The threat of armed conflict continues to loom over Ukraine. Any escalation could have devastating consequences for the region, threatening lives and livelihoods – and yet the local contacts HBI has spoken to remain remarkably sanguine.
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In part, HBI hears that this is because Ukrainians have been living with the threat of war for some time. One hospital source tells us that there has been a low scale conflict for years and while the current massing of troops is unprecedented, the threat is not new. War is not expected, and if it comes, may be short and sharp, one contact tells us, playing down the situation.
But while locals quietly tell us they do not expect that any conflict, even if it comes, will have a lasting effect on the market, foreign investors are far more divided.
Foreign direct investments, encouraged by the pro-Western course of the country, may dry up, we hear – though in Ukraine (and, indeed, Russia) there is a far greater reliance on domestic capital than elsewhere.
But the real risk is the departure of much needed skilled staff. We hear there is a very substantial risk of healthcare workers, particularly Ukrainian nurses, fleeing the country to places like neighbouring Poland – something which would be a substantial blow to most healthcare sectors, particularly during a pandemic.
At the time of writing, Ukraine, with a population 43 million, had 41,694 new Covid cases in the last 24 hours, and its healthcare system is straining. There is never a good time for a war. Should matters escalate in Ukraine, however, the timing will be particularly unfortunate.
We would welcome your thoughts on this story. Email your views to David Farbrother or call 0207 183 3779.
