When will vaccine rollouts hit PCR test volumes?
As vaccine rollouts pick up the pace across the world, we ask when lab groups’ volumes will start to be affected.
HBI Deals+Insights readers will next week be able to read our analysis of PCR testing volumes data in countries where vaccination programs have been most successful – the UK, Israel and the UAE to name a few – compared to those with a more sluggish approach – France and Germany, for example.
What we see so far is that PCR testing volumes seem to be holding up, even as recently as last week in those countries which have vaccinated their priority groups already. Data for this week and next week may show a different trend, but for now, the figures are remarkably close to those Q3 numbers that boosted Synlab and Unilabs so much.
Prices for PCR tests continue to drop but we expect big-events and employer-provided testing to continue driving growth this summer. Synlab is conservatively forecasting 3% organic growth in the mid-term but clearly this is hard to know. The all-knowing credit rating agency Moody’s got it completely wrong on the lab sector last year.
The implications of what happens to the multiples that PE owners will get for upcoming processes like Synlab, Unilabs, Cerba and now Amedes are obvious. And it is interesting to note that while Cerba may join Synlab in an IPO process, Unilabs feels the COVID pandemic is creating far too much uncertainty to actively explore exit options.
So is this a good, or a bad time to sell or IPO after COVID uniquely warped big lab revenue? Stay tuned to find out!
We would welcome your thoughts on this story. Email your views to Cameron Murray or call 0207 183 3779.
