European market potential for residential elderly care
This week we plot three variables showing possible future market potential for for-profit residential elderly care across eleven different countries and three European regions.
This market overview is based on a report and data by Dutch multinational banking and financial services corporation ING, and is best read in conjunction with the more detailed Nursing Homes Market Overview in our Intelligence Centre which takes a deeper dive into the sector, broken down by country, and discusses market drivers and growth inhibitors in more detail.
ING’s data makes some corrections for future government cuts to healthcare and possible tax raises impacting on disposable income, while our Intelligence Centre additionally takes into account wider market forces. The data displayed here is on projected incomes for the over 75s is based on nominal GDP growth, which does not take into account inflation.
HBI predicts the growth in better quality homecare, coupled with improvements in technology for telemonitoring and patient engagement, will curb the expansion of residential care to some degree. The elderly want to stay at home for as long as they can, which not only reduces costs for the payor but has opened up innovative markets for tech and digital businesses looking to meet that demand. And the largest providers of residential care have already added homecare to their service offering, complementing their business and adding new avenues for growth.
The variables used here – projected disposable income, willingness to pay for quality and demographic potential – are strong markers for mapping out potential opportunities in the for-profit sector. Our infographic shows the biggest for-profit opportunities will be found in North Western Europe where demographics and income levels fuel demand, while Eastern Europe is opening to growth and even attracting some big entrants from West, giving countries in CEE a place on the map.
Most interesting is the data on a country’s current willingness to pay for quality, which gives us insight into where high-end care can develop. Interestingly, Germany – the market which investors hail as the biggest and most attractive in Europe – ranks lowest in willingness to pay above average costs, below Romania, Spain and Italy. This metric also shows us that high projected disposable income is not enough to predict where demand for such care will be highest. Austria has the highest disposable income for 2030 but ranks below Romania for willingness to pay, a country with the lowest projected income.
We would welcome your thoughts on this story. Email your views to Anaïs Charles or call 0207 183 3779.