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Exclusive prediction: Pandemic reaching turning point in Europe?

An exclusive analysis by Chinese insurance giant Ping An suggests COVID-19 cases could reach a turning point in the next few days, hitting the peak of new confirmed cases by later this week / early April,  with that figure set to fall thereafter.

The analysis by Ping An Macroeconomic Research Institute and Ping An Healthtech Research Institute focuses on seven of the most affected countries, considering factors such as quarantine controls, public sentiment analysis, population density, medical resources and size of the elderly population.

The analysis suggests that different countries will reach the turning point at different times:

Italy – Mar. 21-25, which is probably at the peak period now

Germany – Mar. 27-31

France – Mar. 27-31

Spain – Mar. 28-Apr. 1

U.S. – Mar. 30-Apr. 3

Iran – Mar. 31-Apr. 4

According to the analysis, the estimated total confirmed cases in each country will be: U.S., 300,000 people; Italy, 150,000; Spain, 120,000; Germany 95,000; France, 72,000; Iran, 64,000 and South Korea, 10,000.

Ping An adds that it appears South Korea has already passed the peak point, as has China, where disease prevention and control efforts are shifting to preventing imported cases from the U.S., Iran and European countries.

Most countries will reach peak in new cases around March 27-April 4, according to Ping An’s analysis. Most of the countries are likely to see a slowdown in the rate of new cases each day between Mar. 21-Apr. 4. Italy appears to have had the peak of new reported cases on March 22, and has now started to decline. The U.S. is forecast to reach the peak of new reported cases per day between Mar. 30-Apr. 3.

Click here to see the full press release.

HBI will be writing a follow up to this story and would welcome your thoughts on the prediction. Email david@healthcarebusinessinternational.com.


We would welcome your thoughts on this story. Email your views to David Farbrother or call 0207 183 3779.