Four things to look out for in 2024
As we celebrate the new year, here are four predictions for 2024.
1. The economy will improve – but not quite to pre-Covid levels
With deals resuming and interest rates seemingly dropping across Europe, the economic malaise which characterised 2023 should soon be in the rear view mirror. Expect any pulled sales which were directly impacted by poor economic conditions to be resurrected. European Dental Group (EDG), for example, could well come back to market in Q1. Italy, however, is the only of the major five European markets which currently has an inflation rate of below 2%.
2. Demand will remain high for NHS systems, which will struggle and remain underfunded
NHS systems, in particular the UK and Italy, are likely to see increasing demand as both governments struggle to find NHS funding. In the UK this demand is so overwhelming private providers are looking for ways to manage it and in Italy some regions traditionally inhospitable to private care are starting to look at it more favourably. Private pay in both markets is increasing, as it is in many other markets.
3. AI will solve many problems – especially workflow
AI is very good at automating certain repeated tasks, but many clinical decisions are still far outside its capabilities – including help with triage – and it causes legal concerns. This is changing. Its use will continue to increase as its capabilities expand exponentially. Leonid Shapiro, managing partner and founder of consultancy Candesic, tells HBI: “Given where the UK and the NHS is with waiting lists and increasing demand and limited resources, we need efficiency of things like AI across the board – administrative, clinical, and even the administrative part of clinical.
4. Germany and France will remain the problem areas of Western Europe
Issues which dominated 2023 such as German health reforms and the French nursing home reputation scandal will continue – however there may be partial resolution. In Germany, while there is a risk some of the smaller hospitals on the brink of insolvency keeling over as politicians have still not come to an agreement on reform, any reform which does happen appears increasingly likely to be a heavily watered down version of the original draconian proposals. Meanwhile in France, the focus remains on under fire elderly care group Orpea which will continue to rebuild its reputation, and may follow competitor Clariane (formerly Korian) and rename. This would distance it from the blow to its reputation it has suffered.
We would welcome your thoughts on this story. Email your views to Joe Quiruga or call 0207 183 3779.
